The Nemtsovschina

Nemtsov has just been gunned down by a death squad literally meters from the Kremlin walls, in one of the most secure areas of Russia. He had ceased to be a significant political figure for decades, but Putinism has clearly decided to send a message.

Future historians will commemorate this as the beginning of the Nemtsovschina -- the application of open violence against anyone who dares to question the historic greatness of Russia's decrepit, failing petro-colonialism, a.k.a. the Huylo-garchy.

The professionals and intellectuals will begin to emigrate by the millions. Huylo will relaunch his war against Ukraine this spring. The Saudis will shrug their shoulders, and ensure that oil prices stay exactly where they are. The Russian economy will stagger on for another year, then implode completely once its foreign reserves run out (29% are gone already, and the punishing recession will quicken the drain). In the end, Russia will suffer a resounding military defeat at the hands of a retrained and reequipped Ukrainian army.

And then it's going to be 1917 all over again. Savor the geopolitical irony that Putin's fourth and final personal reinvention -- he transformed himself from KGB spook into Sobyak's bagman, to President of the oligarchs, to emperor of the Eurasian petro-colonialisms -- is going to be as Russia's Nicholas 2.0.