Sunday, April 13, 2014

War, Ever Closer

From the phantom state, to the phantom empire, to the phantom annexation of Crimea -- and now comes Putinism's phantom colonial war on Ukraine: five or six thousand rent-a-thugs, supplemented by a thousand or so GRU and Spetznaz with state-of-the-art Russian weaponry, have occupied a few buildings in eastern Ukraine, mostly small towns with deeply corrupt police forces. In response, the interim government is mobilizing its army in preparation for a crackdown, albeit with a promise of amnesty for protesters who lay down their arms (there are some, though they are a minority compared to the rent-a-thugs).

More importantly, the Euromaidan is now spreading to the eastern cities. Large pro-Ukraine protests are starting to occur in the east for the first time ever, and will start to snowball, now that Putinism's thugs are resorting to open violence and murder.

I've said this before, but will say it again: Crimea is the only annexation Russia will ever get away. Eastern Ukraine is not Crimea. The region has been majority ethnically Ukrainian for centuries, which means the only way Russian could annex these regions is through open military invasion and subsequent ethnic genocide. Ukraine would resist with a devastating guerilla war, supplemented by massive EU military aid and a world economic blockade on Russia.

It's your move, Putin. You can keep your ill-gotten gains, or you can start a war which will destroy your economy, your Presidency, and eventually the entire Russian Federation -- because China is licking its chops on your doorstep, just waiting for a chance to roll over Siberia. If you truly want to be Russia's Second Napoleon, Li Xinping will be your Bismarck.

No comments:

Post a Comment